What We Know About Climate Change
Бюджет $750-1500 USD
I'm a retired historian, which means I'm a trained academic researcher. I've read hundreds of articles, thousands of pages published in the scientific literature on climate change. What I've found is that TV news anchors, politicians, and the public know very little about the topic. For example, virtually every article I read published by scientists who have done research on sea ice melt, glacier melt, permafrost thawing, ocean temperature, etc, start the same way: ",,,,,[whatever they are studying] is happening much faster than computer models have predicted." The IPCC models have consistently under estimated the speed and severity of climate change by 40-90 years. I even know why this is so. The Washington Post published an article called, "Faulty Data." It reported that the IPCC allows countries to self report their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Everybody cheats. So, IPCC has been feeding faulty data into its computer models. Independent analysis shows around 50 billion tons of CO2 emissions a year, the IPCC puts 35 billion tons per year into its models. The old computer expression, "garbage in, garbage out," applies here.
Also, the PBS science series Nova aired an episode called Arctic Sinkholes. It describes "massive amounts of methane" bubbling up out of the thawing permafrost. IPCC models don't account for this methane, it's not added into the total GHG emissions feed into the model, because they have no way of measuring how much is going into the air.
So, if IPCC says we'll cross 1.5 degrees C warming in the 2030s, or at mid-century, or possibly never if we cut emission, should we interpret that as a big under estimate of the problem? There is a strong possibility that the answer is, Yes. For example, the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office have both predicted that we'll cross 1.5 degrees C warming as soon as the current La Nina cycle changes to El Nino, perhaps later in 2023 or probably in 2024. I feel like people have a right to be aware of this.
So, could we go on a crash program to shut down fossil fuel electric power plants, and build renewable generation plants? Well, every estimate that I can find says it would cost $4.5 trillion to replace the fossil fuel generators in America with renewable. Who would pay? If consumers pay, everyone's electric bill would triple. Lots of people couldn't afford it. They don't have enough income. They would literally freeze in the dark. Should government pay? When could we expect Mitch McConnell to lead the fight in the Senate to spend $4.5 trillion on renewable electricity?
There is a lot more. What I would like to do is make a U Tube video, such that I have an article headline on screen, with the link information available for anyone who wants to to find the article for themselves. I, or an actor, would read a voice over summarizing what the article says, and explaining how it fits into the big picture.
This seems like it should be a pretty simple video to make. It's just that I'm an old technological dinosaur, and I don't know how to do it.
Is this anything you'd be interested in? Thanks, Dave Morokoff
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